Sports Betting Podcast 2-14-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Ian Cameron, and Rob Veno | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: NHL College Basketball Sammy P Rob Veno Ian Cameron | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Update: Missing from the Math in Kenpom's Foul or Defend Study | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Submitted by Stat Intelligence Those of you who are statheads may have already spent the day discussing Ken Pomeroy?s college basketball tabulations on what happens when a defense does or doesn?t foul when leading by three late in the game. I think a fairly important factor has been left out of the discussions I?ve read and heard (maybe it?s come up often in ones I haven?t). First, the nuts and bolts. Pomeroy wanted to compare late game success rates from recent years that would shed light on the ?foul or defend? debate. Some people are always screaming at coaches to foul when up three in the final seconds. Most coaches are ignoring this and continuing to defend, figuring the worst that can happen is that the other team hits a trey and the game goes to overtime. Kenpom?s Parameters In games from 2009-10 to the present Defense leads by exactly 3 points Opponent takes possession from between 12 and 5 seconds left in regulation or overtime Kenpom?s Findings There were 677 cases of defending There were 137 cases of fouling In the 677 cases of defending, the defensive team went on to win 93.4% of the time In the 137 cases of fouling, the defensive team went on to win 92.3% of the time Kenpom Summarizes: ??defending has surprisingly worked out to be a slightly better strategy over the past three-plus seasons.? ?Some people might say there?s a definitive conclusion in this. After all, there are over 800 cases. But because there are so few cases of failure, that?s a misrepresentation of the sample size. The fact is, we could use an additional 5-10 years of data before making a definitive statement. Even then, tweaks in the methodology can get you closer to one answer or the other.? ?However, I think that says something about how difficult it is to determine the proper strategy. To me, the only conclusion one can make is that the criticism of coaches that choose to defend appears to be misplaced. A small percentage of the time you?ll get burned no matter what you choose to do. We will continue to see teams make game-tying threes near the end of games more often than they get fouled simply because more coaches choose this strategy. In the long run, it?s difficult to prove it?s a bad idea.? What?s missing from the math? Let me start by asking you a question. Who got fouled? If you?re a coach in the final moments of a chess match thriller, and you?re confronted with this scenario?defend or foul?how are you going to decide what to do? You could see above that the general rule of thumb is to defend (83% of the possessions were defended, 17% saw fouls). What would make you foul? I think most of us would agree that the logical way to approach the challenge would be: *Foul the teams who are most likely to hit a three *Defend everyone else, particularly teams who aren?t all that great from long range Remember, coaching orthodoxy has been to defend. A coach has to be pretty afraid of the opponent?s perimeter game to trump the orthodoxy. This reality of game theory has a way of mucking up conclusions you might draw from the initial set of numbers. It wasn?t: Defending worked .934 of the time There?s a good chance it was: Defending worked .934 of the time but the most dangerous 17% of perimeter offenses weren?t allowed to shoot! We don?t know what the success rate would have been if all 814 cases had been defended and NOBODY fouled. We do know that 17% of the possible shooters were erased from the ?defend? sample because they got fouled?and it was likely a grouping included the most dangerous threats from long range. THIS MATTERS! It?s not 93.4% if you defend, it?s 93.4% if you?re defending roughly the bottom 80% of three-point threats. We?re never going to get a good test sample because we can?t tell coaches ?Hey, could you guys NOT foul the best three-point shooting teams in these situations this year so we can see how often they beat you?? But, we can use some common sense thinking to paint a picture that might actually be suggesting coaches are doing the right thing, and they?re doing the right thing in dramatic fashion. Imagine for a moment that nobody ever fouled, and the resulting win rate was 91% for ALL teams who had that 3-point lead with 5-12 seconds left in the game. That doesn?t seem too unrealistic. It?s 93% for the 83% of the cases that were defended in Kenpom?s study. Throw in the 17% scariest perimeter teams that weren?t allowed to shoot treys before but now are...a 91% success rate for ALL defenses doesn?t seem crazy. What that means in the math if we apply the principles to Kenpom?s data: 91% success rate against all offenses (741 wins in 814 games in our estimated hypothetical) 93% success against the bottom 83% (632 of 677 tabulated by Kenpom) 80% success against the top 17% scariest perimeter shooters (109 of 137 deduced by subtraction) Now?in a brave new world?coaches who have grown tired of watching good perimeter offenses hit late treys against them decide to foul the 17% of opposing offenses who are most scary from long range, but they continue to defend the other 83% the way they always had. *Coaches are still winning 93% of the time against the bottom 83% (no change in strategy for them) *Coaches are now winning MUCH more often against the scariest 17%! (lifting overall win rate) The lesson of the study may not be that it doesn?t matter which choice you pick because you?re going to win about 93% of the time either way. That potential illusion was created because a dangerous 17% hunk of perimeter shooters were prevented from showing us what they can do. The study may be suggesting that fouling the most dangerous perimeter teams is a GREAT choice because it improves your win rate against that most lethal sample. The people yelling at the TV ?You?ve got to foul there!? are right if the offense is dangerous from long range (which is a pretty good match for reality based on what I?ve seen). It almost works out to an 80/20 rule (doesn?t everything in life?). If you?re on defense with a 3-point lead in the final seconds?foul the most dangerous 20% of opposing offenses, defend the other 80%. Kenpom?s study may be suggesting that coaching as a composite has already found the right mix that maximizes win potential when confronted with that defensive choice late in a close game. Only defending (never fouling) might yield 91% (or thereabouts), with painful losses where it just seemed dumb not to foul a strong perimeter team. Applying the 80/20 rule pushed that to 93%. At the very least, the impact of the study can?t be fully digested in my view until you mentally pencil in what that scariest 17% who were fouled would have done. That's what was missing from the math. You can't properly evaluate the strategy choices until you have a good estimate for that element of the decision-making mix. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.
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College Basketball Gambling: Louisville looks to bounce back vs. St. John's | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| St. Johns at Louisville -17 O/U 132.5 Last night, Notre Dame had a difficult time disposing of Big East bottom feeder DePaul, eventually winning in overtime, 82-78. Heading into that game there were obvious questions about whether or not the Irish would?have enough in the?tank?physically and emotionally after the five overtime affair against Louisville. Tonight it is the Cardinals' turn as they play host to St. John's. ?In three of our five losses, we have beat ourselves, and for a veteran team that?s very disturbing,? Pitino said on Wednesday. ?I think we?re playing with great heart, with very little head. You?ve got to play smart as well as playing hard to be a successful team, and they know that.? ?Russ has got to learn that we have some other talented offensive players,? Pitino said. ?He?s got to shoot less and pass more to guys like Chane (Behanan) because we have some offensive talents.? ?Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals St. John's Red Storm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapping: Reno sportsbook posts Season O/U Wins | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ViewFromVegas.com posted what is believed to be 2013?s first MLB Season Over/Under Win numbers courtesy of Reno's Atlantis Sportsbook. D?Backs 81? ov -120 / un -110? Tags: MLB | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Betting: Miami Heat have won and covered five straight vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Miami at Oklahoma City -5 O/U 204.5 Big matchup on TNT tonight with Miami headed to Oklahoma City. The two squads last hooked up on Christmas with the Heat (-2.5) earning the victory, 103-97. It is also a rematch of last year's NBA Finals in which Miami won 4-1. Tonight will mark the third time this season the Heat have been an underdog ? in the previous two they beat both the Lakers and Nugget outright.
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College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeAfter limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 ? three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary ? one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern. According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games that Northeastern has pulled out over conference foes. NU's 12 league wins have come by margins of 10, 4, 5 (OT), 11, 5, 4, 4 (2OT), 10, 7, 5, 5 (OT), and 4. So of their 12 wins, eight came by five points or less and three of those went to overtime. Now I'm of the belief that Northeastern has been a tab bit fortunate. It's different when a team is rolling through conference play like Florida (who did finally lose) or Miami (who I think may lose tonight) but when you?re winning close game after close game eventually things don?t go your way. As mentioned, some power ratings suggest Northeastern isn't even the best team in the league. And how is it that a team who was projected during the preseason to place in middle-of-the-pack, who won just one game in December, be only 8-5 ATS (7-6 if not for an overtime winner) despite a 12-1 SU record? Short answer: NU is 0-5 ATS when laying more than a field goal. To NU's credit, one of the main reasons they've been able to sustain this seemingly impossible trajectory is that?they shoot 77.3% from the free throw line and 43.3% from three in league play. Do those two things on a consistent basis and you'll win more close games than you lose. But you?re not always going to shoot 12-of-21 from three and barely squeak away with a road win like they did last time out against William & Mary. Or hold a team to 1-of-26 from three (WOW!) and need overtime to win and cover (see: Old Dominion game last week). So as a bettor, what do you do with Northeastern? Do you just fade away? Stay away? Or ride this team while their hot? I'm personally looking for spots to play against because I don't think they can sustain their good fortune and above average play. The only problem is that oddsmakers aren't always pricing Northeastern like a 12-1 team with a three-game lead in conference play. Tonight, you can find the Huskies as a seemingly cheap 4-point home favorite vs. Delaware. Is there any value in fading that? Not enough for me to get excited about. I'll probably make a small moneyline wager?on Delaware in part because I just spent the last hour railing against Northeastern and would feel like an idiot if the Blue Hens won tonight and I didn't cash in. That said, and this is the case with a lot of college basketball games this time of year, the value is scarce and you have to dig for as much info as you can to find ? particularly the type of info that isn?t accounted for in the betting markets. In the case of Northeastern-Delaware, the line seems fair, but I'll be pulling for some regression and the road side to come out on top. Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: Can Notre Dame get up for DePaul? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depaul at Notre Dame -11.5 Bus trips, fatigue, hangovers, letdowns...they are all tricky aspects of a lot of handicaps this time of year. For every one that plays out as expected ? Team A off a big win over rival but falls flat next time out as road chalk ? there is another that doesn't ? Team B off three road games in five nights, the last of which in two overtimes, rolls to an easy win and cover. For tonight, a lot of folks are going to question whether or not Notre Dame can bounce back from Saturday's five overtime circus win over Louisville. DePaul isn't a very good team (1-9 vs. Big East) but the Blue Demons have at times been competitive (three Big East losses by 1/OT). The Irish meanwhile don't have a big track record of winning by margin against conference foes. Way back on January 5, off two weeks of rest, Notre Dame beat Seton Hall at home by 21. Their other six Big East wins came by 3, 8, 5, 8 (OT) and 3 (OT). The betting markets have already made the initial move (Notre Dame -12.5 down to -11.5). If the Irish manage to show up, they could certainly win by margin. If they don't, then covering double-digits will be a difficult task. "It's not as hard as you think considering it's DePaul," Cooley said of preparing for league game No. 12 of 18. "We know we've got to take that as a big game and just realize no game in the Big East is any more important than another one." "They had guys talking a little trash, so that will be some motivation for us," Grant said. "It's going to be pretty easy to get up for this one." ?Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish DePaul Blue Demons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Gambling: San Antonio's Big Three expected to play vs. Cleveland | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Antonio -7 at Cleveland O/U 207 Despite this being their last game before the All-Star break ? a lot of teams choose to rest injured players ? reports indicate that the San Antonio Spurs will be at full strength tonight with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker all upgraded to probable. The trio did not play in Monday's 103-89 win at Chicago. Oddsmakers are often left playing the guessing game when it comes to who the Spurs will play. They opened -2.5 for tonight's game against the Cavs with the line now up to -7.? Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Handicapping: Rockets roll over Golden State again, Lakers limp past Suns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Both the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers won late Tuesday night, keeping Showtime 3.5 games out of the final spot in the playoffs. Houston (+4) beat Golden State 116-107 LA Lakers (-9.5) beat Phoenix 91-85 Houston was impressive in what could have been a trouble spot as a road underdog. The Lakers didn?t have much sizzle in overcoming a fourth quarter deficit to beat the worst team in the West. I?ll run the game numbers in a moment. First, let?s update the standings in the lower half of the West. I?ll also include the home/road splits so far, because that might matter in a race this tight. Updated Bracket Bwester Standings (top 8 spots reach playoffs) 6?Golden State 30-22 (23 home, 29 road) 7?Utah 29-24 (26 home, 27 road) 8?Houston 29-25 (26 home, 28 road) 9?Portland 25-27 (25 home, 27 road) 10?Lakers 25-28 (26 home, 27 road) Golden State has been plummeting like a boulder in a Road Runner cartoon the past several games, with tonight?s loss to Houston being their fifth straight. That by itself would suggest they were in danger of falling down to the #8 seed themselves?and possibly giving the Blazers and Lakers a new easier target to hit in a few weeks. But, the fact that the Warriors have SIX EXTRA HOME GAMES coming up will give them a chance to right the ship. Nobody above has a more favorable schedule the rest of the way than Golden State. Even if they have been getting the worst results of that quintet of late. All five teams listed have played more road games than home games at the moment. The Lakers only have one extra home game going forward, which hurts even more if Houston (+2) is their target team. A quick look at the game boxes? Houston 116, Golden State 107 2-Point Percentage: Houston 58%, Golden State 47% 3-Point Shooting: Houston 10/34, Golden State 8/20 Free Throws: Houston 20/25, Golden State 23/31 1?s and 2?s: Houston 86, Golden State 83 Rebounds: Houston 48, Golden State 46 Turnovers: Houston 11, Golden State 13 Houston crushed Golden State last week with that historic night from long range. Here, much of the damage was done inside the arc against a soft Warriors defense. So much for revenge-minded intensity from Golden State! The Rockets have been in terrific form after getting their legs back. Remember we documented that brutal stretch a few weeks ago when they had to play two different 4-in-5 stretches in consecutive weeks. The 1-8 record that gauntlet inflicted on them cratered their won-lost record for a bit. But, at 29-25 now?that means they?re 28-17 when fresh! That?s .622 in win percentage?close to what Denver?s done this year. Houston is basically a #4-5 seed when not exhausted. Can the Lakers catch THAT from behind?? LA Lakers 91, Phoenix 85 2-Point Percentage: Phoenix 44%, Lakers 47% 3-Point Shooting: Phoenix 3/13, Lakers 7/21 Free Throws: Phoenix 12/17, Lakers 12/18 1?s and 2?s: Phoenix 76, Lakers 70 Rebounds: Phoenix 48, Lakers 48 Turnovers: Phoenix 19, Lakers 19 Kobe was in a fascinating ?Oh yeah Dwight?you?re not getting enough touches? I?m not going to shoot tonight so you can have the ball all you want? mode. ?Unselfish? Kobe had 9 assists, but also turned the ball over 8 times. He was 1 of 8 from the field. The Lakers were outscored inside the arc, didn?t win rebounds, and didn?t win turnovers even though they were almost double digit favorites at home against the worst of the West. It was an unimpressive 33% performance on treys that ultimately won the game, because Phoenix had fewer makes on 23%. Even though Dwight Howard had 19 points and 18 rebounds in 41 minutes?you don?t see a dramatic ?Dwight impact? in the numbers above. The Lakers are still sweating close games vs. bad teams for the most part, performing at a level well below what we?re seeing from Houston. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here. Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: Miami's Jim Larranaga uses stats, covers numbers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interesting article on Miami head coach Jim Larranaga and is fondness of Ken Pomeroy's statistics. Note that dating back to his last year at George Mason, Larranaga's teams are an amazing 53-26 against the spread. "Honestly, I never think about it," Larranaga answered. "The only rankings that are important to me are the rankings of the KenPom.com stats in all of the categories that determine success or failure." "The first thing I needed them to know is where they needed to improve, and those numbers showed them because they are totally objective numbers," Larranaga said. "You can't argue with them. They show you what you need to work on. And, as a coach, if you don't know what you need to work on, then you're just practicing ... stuff. Yes, I want to practice what we're good at. But what I really want to practice is what we have to improve on to be really good, and I want my players to understand why we're doing it." ?Tags: College Basketball Miami Hurricanes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 2-13-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow, Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: College Basketball NBA Brent Crow Teddy Covers Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Gambling: Duke a double-digit favorite over North Carolina | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| North Carolina at Duke -10.5 O/U 152 Duke and North Carolina hook up for the first time this season in Durham. It's been a balanced series of late with the Blue Devils holding a slight edge both SU (6-5) and ATS (6-5). Home court hasn't meant much with the road side winning six of 10 outright (one game was on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament). Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total.
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NBA Betting Alert: Houston's Harden upgraded to probable vs. Golden State | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Houston at Golden State -4.5 O/U 219 Looks like Houston's James Harden (knee) was upgraded to probable for tonight's contest at Golden State. Harden didn't practice Monday but was able to participate in this morning's shootaround. Following the announcement, the Warriors dropped from -5 to -4.5 home chalk. The Rockets won the?most recent?meeting 140-99. Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Handicapping: Bulls continue to thrive defensively under Thibodeau | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Great article by Grantland's Zach Lowe on the Chicago Bulls and head coach Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosophies. In two and half years under Thibodeau, nearly 56% of Chicago's games have gone UNDER the total. There are other rules and sub-rules, but Chicago under Thibodeau has consistently ranked at or near the top of the league in the percentage of opponent possessions that end with one of those two guys shooting, per Synergy Sports. Other teams, including the Heat, try to force one of the other three guys on the floor to beat them, but Thibodeau wants to make those other three guys borderline useless. Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Indiana State Sycamores at Missouri State Bears | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Teddy CoversIndiana State -4.5 at Missouri State? Recommendation: Indiana State When these two teams met in Terre Haute last month, Indiana State?s defense positively stifled Missouri State?s limited offense after halftime, outscoring the Bears by a dozen in the second half of a comfortable eight point win.? There?s no reason to expect anything significantly different tonight.? The Bears can?t find the bottom of the basket.? They shot just 16-51 from the floor in a 29 point loss at Wichita State over the weekend? after being held to 37 points at Northern Iowa in their previous game, another double digit defeat thanks to their 15-55 shooting effort.? Don?t expect home cookin? to change Missouri State?s offensive acumen in any dramatic way ? they?ve shot under 40% at home for the entire season.? Leading scorer and assist man Anthony Downing hits less than 40% of his shot attempts, while dishing fewer than three assists per game.? As a team, the Bears average only nine assists per game; bad news against the Sycamores' stout defense. Indiana State has been a consistent moneymaker for their supporters all year.? They?ve gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine road tilts, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall; still an undervalued commodity at this late stage of the season.??The Sycamores have road wins and covers at Northern Iowa and Wichita State already in Missouri Valley Conference play; two teams that are one heck of a lot better than the Missouri State squad they?ll face tonight!? ? Tags: College Basketball Indiana State Sycamores Missouri State Bears Teddy Covers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NHL Handicapper Free Pick: New York Rangers at Boston Bruins | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Sammy P SportsNY Rangers +120 at Boston O/U 5? Recommendation: New York The New York Rangers face the Boston Bruins for the third time this season after they split the first two meetings.? Rangers head coach John Tortorella recently shook up the lines and it has paid off with plenty of goals coming from outside the big three of Nash, Gaborik, and Richards the last two games. Boston is a very tough place to play, and this is a very good and deep team, but I see it as a tough spot for the Bruins as decent size favorites.? This line is a bit too inflated and we find good value backing New York in a situation that sees Boston in a "sandwich" game.? Boston played in Buffalo Sunday night, and they play in Buffalo Friday night after tonight?s home tilt.? I never like to back a team that comes back home to play just one game before going back onto the road. Boston is just 8-12 (all 20 games as a home favorite) dating back to the 2009-10 season in this situation.? This is a very good opportunity to grab a live dog in a special situational spot. Tags: NHL New York Rangers Boston Bruins Sammy P | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 2-12-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Brent Crow, and Alf Musketa | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: NHL College Basketball NBA Sammy P Brent Crow Alf Musketa | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Gambling: Long trips and a short turnaround for Valpo | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valparaiso at Wright State pk Big matchup in the Horizon League tonight as Valparaiso (9-2) heads to Wright State (8-4). Valpo didn't get home from its trip to Cleveland State until late Saturday night and left via bus for Dayton on Monday morning. ?We got guys with some injuries that were on the bus for 10 hours two days ago and then almost four and a half hours today,? Drew said. ?That?s almost 15 hours. I think travel catches up with you at some point. When that point is, you never know." ?Tags: College Basketball Valparaiso Crusaders Wright State Raiders | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Las Vegas sportsbooks posted big earnings in 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Las Vegas sportsbooks hauled in a $170 million profit in 2012 ? nearly a 21% increase over 2011. The books reportedly clean up in pro and college hoops as well as September football.Tags: Las Vegas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Handicapping: Breaking down the Eastern Conference | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence So many weird things have been happening in the NBA?s Eastern Conference in recent days, that I got to wondering what the standings looked like since the turn of the year. That time period would encapsulate the Knicks cooling off a bit?Washington heating up?and all sorts of various storylines. Let?s take a look... NBA EAST IN 2013 (only counting games since New Year's) 1?Miami 13-6 2?Brooklyn 14-7 3?Chicago, Indiana, Boston 13-8 Miami?s still at three-quarter speed?yet has the best record in the conference in this short sample. Brooklyn hasn?t played as well as that record would suggest the past several days?but they did win tonight in Indiana to take over the theoretical #2 seed in this time frame. The next three teams have had multiple nights where had kicked things into playoff gear. Ironically, all three lost tonight! Chicago, Indiana, and Boston were 13-7 in 2013 until falling tonight as favorites to San Antonio, New Jersey, and Charlotte respectively. Only Boston had a good excuse (to the degree there can be a good excuse to lose to Charlotte) because of multiple overtimes Sunday. Both Chicago and Indiana were favored over opponents missing stars, and missed market expectations by double digits. Sorry?there?s just no way Miami doesn?t win the East unless there?s a major injury. One of these guys is going to beat the Heat in a 4-of-7 when the Heat are at full strength and full intensity? 6?New York 11-8 7?Washington 11-11 New York no longer looks like an automatic #2 seed for the season, which was the case during their fast start. They have a chance to get hot in the playoffs of course. They?re much less scary than they used to be because their defense has softened up and offensive turnovers have been turbo-boosted. Technically, Washington has been playing like a playoff team in this span. But, that?s because a .500 record is good enough for the playoffs in the crappy East. If you only look at the games they?ve played since John Wall returned, they actually do grade out as a playoff caliber team. We?ve documented that a few times already. Might have to do that again soon! Tonight?s 102-90 win at Milwaukee was impressive. Vegas has tried to adjust (Wiz only +4 tonight) but the team keeps beating expectations. 8?Detroit, Cleveland 9-11 10?Atlanta, Milwaukee 9-12 12?Philadelphia 8-11 13?Toronto 8-12 14?Charlotte 4-16 15?Orlando 3-17 Still a lot of ugly in this glorified D-League. But it?s important to be aware that Detroit and Cleveland are actually a tick better than playoff bound Atlanta and Milwaukee since the year turned?while Philadelphia and Toronto are just a tick below them. If you?re looking at the standings in the morning newspaper, that reality isn?t going to jump out at you. Rounding out the list?Orlando is the new Charlotte. Charlotte is still the old Charlotte. I?ve been hesitant to update the market-estimated NBA Power Ratings because so many teams are either playing shorthanded, or kind of treading water until the All-Star Break. I?ll pick that up again after the All-Star Break once everyone?s rejuvenated, healthier, and focused more aggressively on playoff positioning. The biggest lesson today is more of a reminder that you need to think of this current Washington roster as being playoff caliber in the weaker East. They?ve played at that level for an extended period now. The market is still catching up. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here. Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under Calipari | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kentucky at Florida -10 O/U 133.5 Kentucky finds itself a double-digit underdog for tonight's game at Florida ? the most points the Wildcats have ever been catching while under John Calipari's watch. Calipari is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS as an underdog dating back to the 2009-10 season.
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College Basketball Handicapping: Is it smart to foul up three? | |||
| As a basketball bettor, rarely a week goes by where the issue of whether or not to foul up three comes into question. We've all been there ? and certainly remember the times when the team that you wagered on did the opposite of what was needed to cover. Ken Pomeroy ran his numbers and ultimately felt that fouling up three was the WRONG decision. The fact is, chances of losing are close to remote in either case, but execution errors, an inflated offensive rebounding percentage, poor three-point shooting, and the chance of an extra possession are enough to counteract what might otherwise be the advantage of forcing a team to shoot free throws. In cases where the opponent has multiple good three-point shooters and you have confidence in rebounding a missed free throw, fouling may be the better option. But it appears the default decision should be to not foul. ?Tags: College Basketball | |||
New Jersey casino introduces us to the concept of bed betting | |||
| On one hand, staying at a casino and having the ability to gamble from the comfort of one?s bed sounds enticing. But one the other hand, it also comes off as a bit lazy, no? I'm not really sure I can muster up enough energy to make the 82-second walk from my room to the $5 blackjack table so I think I'll just sit here in my boxers and gamble by myself. "This puts us in a position to leverage the technology into true mobile gaming and Internet betting later on," said Tom Balance, the Borgata's president and chief operating officer. "We're moving forward with the future of gaming, and this is that first step." "I like the ambiance of being down here on the casino floor," she said. "I like the noise of the machines. In my room, I'd find it depressing, to be honest." ?Tags: College Basketball | |||
College Basketball Betting Update: Minnesota's wheels come off again | |||
A little over two weeks ago the Minnesota Golden Gophers they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak with rumblings that the program was in disarray. The following game they had a decent effort at Wisconsin (lost by one, covered +3.5) and then manhandled Nebraska at home by 19. Up next, Minny barely slipped past Iowa, 62-59, as 10-point home favorites ? a win that was a bit troubling considering the Golden Gophers shot better from the field, attempted and made more free throws, were +6 on the glass, and somehow didn't sniff a pointspread cover. Three days later in East Lansing, Minnesota had a 20-18 halftime lead but lost by 11 catching +3.5. But out of all of those performances, it was Sunday's showing vs. Illinois that was the worst. In an absolutely prime spot ? off a loss, at home, facing a mediocre Illini squad that just beat the No. 1 team in the country in miracle fashion ? Minnesota was simply awful. This is an offense that through its first five Big Ten games averaged 79 ppg and against the 11th-ranked defensive efficiency team in the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers managed only 53 points. The loss once again added to the program?s underachieving ways under head coach Tubby Smith. Under Smith in Big Ten play, Minnesota is now 43-58 SU and 42-57-1 ATS. And this year?s edition, which is supposedly his most talented, is nothing more than a mediocre 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS?in conference play. Teams come back from the dead all the time so we can?t put the final nail in the coffin. However, something obviously isn't right (mutiny?) and your money is better spent elsewhere.
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NBA Handicapping: Boston Celtics in tough spot after overtime win over Denver | |
| Boston -3.5 at Charlotte O/U 193 The Boston Celtics are on a roll, winners of seven straight (7-0 ATS) heading into tonight's game at Charlotte. It'll be interesting to see how head coach Doc Rivers handles tonight's minutes after the Celtics beat Denver in overtime last night. Paul Pierce played 54 minutes while Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry logged 42+. "I?ll let you know after the game [Monday]," Rivers said. "I mean Paul played 54 minutes, and he?s the guy that I?m most concerned with to be honest. And they just played so hard. ... If we have to rest guys, play them shorter minutes tomorrow -- the only way I can do it is by my eyes. You?ll never know how guys feel until [Monday]." "I told Doc I wasn't build for this s--- and I don't know what the hell he thought," Garnett quipped. "But I probably won't even play [Monday] night. I'm lying. I'm out here grinding. It's what it is. Heart of a champion. What can I say?" ?Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Charlotte Bobcats | |
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